Election Deferred

It increasingly appears that a federal election won't occur this fall. Like most people, I'm ok with that. In a post back in August, I suggested that the Liberals would like an election now so that they can be in office when the economy recovers:

"Whatever justification Ignatieff ultimately chooses to promote, I do not believe it will be the real reason. I expect that the true, and hidden, reason will be the same one why he has chosen to support the government until now: the economy. More specifically, they want to stain the Conservatives with the economic downturn and recession, while making sure they are in government when the economy turns around..."

This is pretty much how Ignatieff played his hand, although he bungled it badly. By strictly holding to his intention to only reveal his platform after an election is called, he had nothing to engage the electorate to justify triggering an election. Harper took advantage of that by playing the EI card, making the Liberals look ridiculous in their opposition to a reasonable set of EI reforms. They then snared the NDP into supporting the government, a party that is particularly fearful of an election at this time since they know they would get wiped out, electorally and financially.

In light of the Liberal bungling -- no credible reason presented for defeating the government -- it is no surprise they are lagging in the polls. Harper has now taken the high road in addressing the election question by claiming that the poll numbers mean there is no likelihood of an election, and everyone can relax. This is the perfect strategy for the Conservatives because now they can succeed at the supposed Liberal strategy I had outlined in my previous post: they want to be the party in power when the economy recovers so that they can claim the credit.

"The truth is that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are responsible for either the recession or the coming economic resurgence..."

This remains as true as when I said it in August. With increasing signs of at least a tepid recovery in 2010, the Conservatives are well on the way to winning a majority should an election be called any time during 2010. They will get (unearned) credit for the economic recovery -- assuming we all forget about the massive debt burden, which is entirely possible -- and for steering the country away from an unwanted election, while looking extraordinarily competent in comparison to the Liberals and NDP.