Riding the Wave

There is an increasing probability of a federal election this fall because the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff see the gleam of opportunity. We do not know as yet what pretext they will use to foment a confidence vote that will overturn the government, and it is also quite possible that neither does the leader of the opposition. All we can be certain of, is that when it is presented it will seem utterly credible, whether or not it is of enough moment to justify a change in government. That is the Liberals' political challenge.

I know that this must make me seem either very cynical or anti-Liberals. Neither is true. It is more of an acknowledgment that political parties, no matter their policy objectives, are organized to acquire and maintain power as their first priority. The reason is a sensible one: without power, their policies are not implemented, and even if they are, the credit will go to the government of the day, not them.

Ignatieff is also being very cagey about his policy priorities. He and the Liberal Party know that the Conservative Party is very effective with negative advertising. By delaying policy announcements, there will be less time for their opponents to develop, produce and distribute their attack ads. It's a tricky balancing act, with public impatience on learning what this guy stands for on one side, and the waiting attack dogs on the other side. Further, the timing must be carefully coordinated with the campaign to bring down the government on arguably solid grounds.

"...Ignatieff...failing to tell Canadians why the Harper government should be defeated and what he would do if he were prime minister."

Whatever justification Ignatieff ultimately chooses to promote, I do not believe it will be the real reason. I expect that the true, and hidden, reason will be the same one why he has chosen to support the government until now: the economy. More specifically, they want to stain the Conservatives with the economic downturn and recession, while making sure they are in government when the economy turns around later this year, and employment climbs through 2010. For this purpose it is enough that they form another minority government; a majority is an unnecessary luxury.

The truth is that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals are responsible for either the recession or the coming economic resurgence. The economic cycle is almost entirely due to what is going on in the United States. With our economy so closely dependent on commodities exports to the US, we are simply going along for the ride. The Liberals hope to ride this wave to renewed popularity and a majority government by 2011.

They, as we, are riding the same wave. No one and no party in this country should take credit for the wave.