Risks of Flying

Those in Ottawa are likely familiar with the incident last week when a landing airplane overran the runway at the local airport. Luckily there were no serious injuries. This brings to mind a similar incident where I was a passenger on an aircraft that did something eerily similar. It is one of those things that, if you fly often enough -- and I've done a lot of business travel over the years -- is bound to happen.

In the flight I was on the landing hazard was a low ceiling combined with a sudden snow squall. I was in a window seat so I got a pretty good view of the landing as it transpired. I remember the long descent through an unbroken cloud deck, knowing that we had to be getting close to the ground, when we did break through the low ceiling perhaps only a few hundred feet above the ground. The descent continued through the heavy snow fall for a few seconds until we reached the runway lights. Alongside a few dim, snow-covered lights was a flat expanse of white where the runway had to be.

At this point our descent slowed for a moment -- it could be that the pilot was assessing the landing conditions. Then down we went, kicking up thick clouds of snow as be bounced down the runway. The pilots were braking slowly, careful not to lose control as the plane tried to gyrate on the slippery surface. It brought to mind something that a pilot once told me about one of the difficulties of flying a two-engine versus a single-engine plane: you have to finely adjust the thrust of each engine to avoid spinning the craft on a slippery surface. That's one reason why piloting a single-engine airplane requires less training. I suppose modern avionics must simplify this task, but this particular incident occurred many years ago.

I was familiar enough with the airport to know that we were getting near the end of the runway and our speed was still much too high to turn. Then we came to the very last taxiway at the very end of the runway and the pilot made the attempt. It didn't work. The plane made a half turn and proceeded to slide sideways into the field in the angle between the runway and taxiway.

At this point it is worth mentioning just how tough modern aircraft are built. To an unpracticed eye they seem to be terribly fragile machines that are at the whim of the forces of nature. In actuality, the undercarriage of an aircraft, including the wing structure, are probably the strongest part of the whole. After all, we have to remember that the entire weight of the aircraft and dynamic loading due to turbulence are supported in flight by the wings. The small motions of the wing tips look misleadingly ominous while in the air, but really say nothing about the total assembly's strength.

As we slide sideways into the snow and ice-covered field there was a violent shuddering, yet we stayed almost perfectly level. Some of the passengers had just enough time to say "oh!" or to suck air into their lungs in surprise, and then the plane stopped. We weren't about to go anywhere fast, but there were no injuries. A few people wondered what had actually happened since, like many people who fly a lot, they weren't paying any attention during the landing.

The rest of the story is boring since it relates to security and bureaucracy, and much waiting around for things to happen, so I'll skip all of that. We turned out to be the last flight of the evening as the airport authorities, belatedly, shut down the airport and diverted incoming traffic elsewhere until they could get the runways in decent shape. In the media, it is said that "if it bleeds, it leads", so, absent any bleeding or even bruises, the incident got only minor news coverage. It gets one wondering how many more of these minor incidents are never noticed because of the lack of media interest.

Happily, that was the only borderline serious incident I've been directly involved in, and it did not put me off flying a bit. We do tend to remember the few horror stories about flying, but not the vastly greater number of flights where everything ran smoothly. It remains a great way to travel, if you can overlook the tedium of getting to and from the airport and navigating security measures.

Signs of Almost Spring

Two years ago when we had that near-record breaking snowfall winter, I remember that about this time in March there were robins hopping around on the tops of snow drifts. With the recent extraordinary warm spell, the birds are not in the same predicament.

Now that spring is officially here -- the equinox occurred on Saturday -- it is time to go through my personal checklist to see if spring has truly arrived:

• Robins: check.
• Geese: check. Apparently, all they wait for is the retreat of snow cover, not warm weather or lots of green stuff to eat.
  
• Chipmunks: check.
• Groundhogs: all quiet around the burrows. I pass a lot of them on my frequent runs, but I've not seen even one poking its little head out and blinking the sleep out of its eyes.
• Midges: check. Clouds of these little pests can be seen all season long swirling in the sunlight doing their mating dance, but they usually wait until the weather spends more time above the freezing point. So far there are few of them, but they are here.
• Squirrels: check. Of course, that isn't saying anything since they're active all winter long.
• Motorcycles: check.
• NCC pathways: mostly clear.
• Flood warnings: nope. The creeks are running ice-free, and the snow melt looks inadequate to cause flooding. Looks like Glencairn is off the hook for now.
• Street sweeping: partial: On some streets the grit has been swept from the road onto the sidewalk, while on others the grit has been swept from the sidewalk onto the street. This battle of the sweepers is a yearly event.
• Mosquitoes: nope.
• Tree buds: nope. They're still tightly bundled up inside their little shells.
• Sap running: check.
• Performance sports cars out of storage and roaring down the roads: check.
• Neighbour's deck chairs out: check.

Well, this list can go on forever. I think we have enough signs that spring is well underway, and it is ahead of schedule in comparison to previous years. Of course we'll probably pay for this with another cool summer. And, no, none of this is a confirmation or a disproof of global warming.

Our Young Centenarians

A belated Canada Day to everyone.

As celebrations wind down for our country's 142nd birthday, I want to share a thought. Everywhere you looked during all the events around town there were countless young children. What struck me was the realization that a large proportion of these children will live to see the next century. That's right - they will live past the year 2100. I find that remarkable.

I have no deep messages to convey except a sense of the continuity of life and hope for the future. There will of course be both good and bad developments both in Canada and the world over the next 90 years, and these future centenarians will see it all. We won't, of course, but they will.

It pleases me to speculate on what wonders they will see, experience and share in that distant future. Hope springs eternal.

Race Weekend Recap

For those not in Ottawa, we just experienced our annual Race Weekend where something like 36,000 runners take to streets in various events including a marathon. It's a lot of fun. I once again ran in the half-marathon, which is the event with the largest participation: about 9,000.

I don't run much as a rule except to train for this one event. However I am fit enough to put in a decent showing. Now as I toss my running shoes aside until next spring I'd like to record a few of my memories of the event. While there's lots to gripe about if you try to do so, that is not my aim. After all, it's a fun event even though it is demanding.

With that preamble, on to my list:

• The weather was quite good - neither too hot nor too cold, although the sun was sizzling. My strategy was to grab a cup of water at every station and pour it over my head. That worked perfectly to keep the sun at bay.
• The crowds, as always, were great. Many must have shouted themselves hoarse from cheering the runners onward.
  
• There has been some criticism of the recent route change that includes several kilometers in Gatineau/Hull since the cityscape on the route is a bit grittier that the section in Ottawa. I find it refreshing to pass through areas where real people live and work. It also has the benefit of multiple ups and downs rather than the dead flat roads on the Ottawa side. It adds challenge while also adding some needed variety. The only peculiarity is the near absence of spectators. It gets eerily quiet as you cross the Chaudiere bridge and then the cheering returns as you cross the Alexandria bridge.
• I was surprised the first couple of times that spectators, complete strangers, called out my name as they cheered me on. Then I remembered that the race bib on my chest has my name printed on it.
• The "loot" in the runner's kit was pretty slim this year: a pack each of candies and chips. Not running related, but even so they were all consumed soon enough. I wish the athletic shirts they provide had a small pouch somewhere since they would then actually be useful. It's always a puzzle to figure out how to carry a key, food or other essentials when clothed in only lightweight running gear.
• There was lots of room to relax in the finish area since they strictly enforced the rule that says non-runners cannot enter. I even found some shade to lie down in. The downside is that it made the environment a bit sterile since there was no possibility of interaction between runners and their friends and families, which is often the best part about finishing the race. I would gladly give up my patch of shade to allow everyone to mix freely.
  

As usual everything was well organized and for the runners there was little to complain about. What problems there were had more to do with the participants rather than with anyone else. Besides, the positives so outweighed the negatives that they really aren't worth the time to type them out. So I will happily close this post on the positive note that this great event deserves. Then once the pain subsides I can start looking forward to next year.

You've Never Done That Before

Like most everyone I do pay attention to mass media. It's hard to avoid and should not be avoided since so much good and timely news comes to us from them. We do need to remain wary since there is a lot of blather in the mix, some of it downright intellectually insulting.

One of the common trite themes in the media (and, yes, also in blogs) is to critique those who aspire to a position or level they have never before held. It is so easy to say: he or she has never done that before. That becomes a platform from which the commentator then goes on to demean or dismiss the person. I find that incredibly irritating, especially since the message is so often coming from a mediocre journalist or "talking head" analyst who have themselves never achieved much of anything.

This style of put down is ridiculous. If no one ever tried to achieve objectives that they've never before accomplished every human being would remain in their cribs for life. Never tried crawling before? Who do you think you are, baby? And, walking? Well, you can't even crawl yet. This is the domain of the incorrigible pessimist, the lazy or incompetent (hate to see others succeed) and schadenfreude (like to see others fail).

This particular subject came to mind as I read about Yahoo!'s new CEO, Carol Bartz. I was quite astonished at the number of articles and other commentary that criticized her for never having run a company like Yahoo! before, and that this portends dire consequences for both her and the company. Of course we also heard the same thing about Obama and the presidency both during and after the campaign. We get the same in domestic politics, with the wags going nuts saying, "I told you so," after Dion bombed out. But at least he tried which is more than can be said of so many of the naysayers. Since when is striving and failing an indictable offense. It's about improving ourselves and others, or at least making a valiant attempt. Bartz may fail, but then, like Zafirovski at Nortel, she is taking on quite a challenge. Good for her, I say.

I'm sure you could come up with countless other examples, from sports team (they've never won the cup before), individual athletes (how can he possibly expect to break that world record), to friends and family (she's never run before so she'll surely hurt herself trying to improve her health). I also see it a lot in the Ottawa technology community. Investors are always willing to bet on people who have successfully built (and exited) a start-up, yet are frequently dismayed at the idea of betting on an untested team. But to avoid doing so is holding good people down, and miss potentially high returns (with the customary risks). What you then see are many budding entrepreneurs cut down and opportunities lost. It's a shame. If Ottawa's tech scene continues to decline this attitude will be partly to blame; it is wrong to blame the problem solely on the those who are making the attempt. That is what happens in private with many I have known, even if the public reasons for failure are quite different.

Regardless of what your own endeavour may be, in business, community action, amateur athletics, or even making your own furniture, listen to yourself. The critics may be right, but critics by their nature always criticize and especially if you attempt something they have not had the courage to attempt. They don't know and perhaps you don't either. Try something new occasionally anyway. Failure isn't so bad since you're sure to learn something, maybe even something important.

49 Year Old Olympian

I don't pay much attention to the Olympics, though some of it does filter through to me regardless of my best intentions. One item that penetrated my wall of disinterest today was this item. It brings a smile to my face to think that a woman about my own age is able to not only compete in the Olympics but to do very well indeed. This was one tough cycling road race and she got close to making the final selection. That's truly impressive, and especially so for someone of a certain age.

This fits well with an earlier post where I suggested there is sense in taking more risks as we get older. Longo-Ciprelli is a good example. Of course it helps to have the genetic make-up to be a world-class athlete, so this particular goal isn't for everyone. Nevertheless I believe the idea is right on the mark, and we all have rewarding goals we can realistically strive for as we grow older. Her example is an encouragement for those of us gradually joining the gray-haired demographic.

The Great Dead Car Bounce of 2008

Ever heard the term dead cat bounce? It's commonly used in the world of stocks to characterize the price of a company's shares when it has been severely wounded. The price falls off a cliff and then a short time later, surprisingly, rises, despite the continuing dire, perhaps terminal, prospects for the company. Just like a dead cat falling from a height - one small bounce then down again for good.

SUV resale values have plummeted in 2008 in North America. I haven't looked at the numbers in any depth, though what I've seen is telling. The most gas-guzzling models are selling at 20% or more below Blue Book value. Owners are being badly hurt by the rise in fuel prices. Sales of new fuel-inefficient models is down about 25% between 2004 and 2008, and the number of used SUVs for sale is up about 20% for similar periods in 2007. Demand is down and supply is up, hence lower resale prices. Rather than lower the prices of new SUVs, manufacturers are throwing in extras like guaranteed lower fuel prices for a few months. It isn't helping much, so they're shutting down production.

Now let's suppose a barrel of West Texas crude continues to drop and reaches $100 per barrel by this fall. Will sales of SUVs, new and used, rise once again, and will resale prices return to book value? I would seriously suggest that this phenomenon would be a dead cat bounce. Just as with dead stocks, this may be the best time to sell your gas guzzler. You may never get a better price again. Ever.

Small Town Revitalization?

Time for a short break from DSL congestion stuff.

This is an interesting article. The premise is that increasing fuel prices are encouraging small town residents to shop, work and play closer to home rather than driving off to do these in a nearby larger centre. Local business and employment is up, and so is the tax base.

That's good, right? Short term, sure. I am just not sure it is sustainable.

The benefit of cheap gas is the ability to reap the pleasures of small town livings (and big city suburbs I suppose) and of the big city. Expensive gas is causing people to make a choice because it just got too expensive to have both.

If people believe the spike in fuel prices is short term, their coping mechanism is to not venture far from the small town or countryside where they live. If high fuel prices are sustained, this could have the opposite and devastating effect on those same small towns.

Will those people who want but can no longer have both, and need to make a long-term commitment to one or other, pick the small town? Won't they quite likely choose instead to move (back) to the big city? This is already a decades-long trend that has not been at all affected by historically cheap gas.

Once they make that decision, the small town loses the people, the taxes, the jobs, the local social scene, and well pretty much everyone a small town needs to thrive. The question is how many people need to choose between small and large towns, and how many of those choose the city. Many of those who want both, and moved to the small towns to get it, are likely already more favourably disposed toward the city. In the long run this would further devastate small towns. Perhaps some will trade in their SUVs for smaller vehicles to gain a little more time, though I don't think that'll help for long.

Small towns, I believe, are threatened, not helped in the long run by high fuel prices.

Risk-taking vs. Age

I was reminded of this aspect of human behaviour when this news item about a 95-year old skydiver appeared. Ever notice how typical it is that young people take risks and as we age we tend to reduce our risk-taking activity. There are of course good genetic reasons for risk-taking among the young, especially that of males. There are also good genetic reasons for dying after reproduction of disease, predation and so forth, yet we are no longer constrained by that thanks to civilization and science.

There is an argument to be made that risk-taking should tend to increase as we age. After all, the old have the least to lose since they are closer to death by natural causes. At 20, you risk 60 or more years of life, or a high-quality of life. You also need the time to reproduce and raise your offspring, and you need stability in lifestyle and income to do so successfully. Somewhat more speculatively, imagine if we were to become (near-)immortal due to advances in medical science. As Carl Sagan said using the voice of the character Hadden in his novel Contact, regarding the perppective of a hypothetical immortal race: "Something you think is dead cinch safe, they'll consider an unacceptable risk." The immortal, in other words, are always very young.

At 70, you have perhaps 15 years of life expectancy, more or less. If you had kids, they have long since flown the coop, and you may have a nest egg to get by one for the remainder of your life, or at least a pension, even a poor one, to fall back on. Further, one of the greatest benefits you can now deliver to others is your posterity. That is, die and leave your worldly goods to your children or your favourite causes.

Therefore a youth should avoid risk and a senior citizen should not shy away from embracing it. You don't have to jump from an airplane. You can become an entrepreneur, train for a marathon, risk arrest by protesting for a cause you believe in, or ... just use your imagination.