iPhone is Doomed!

No, actually it isn't, or at least not yet and not for a long time. My headline is simply a parody of so many of the superficial articles I see these days (a few examples here, here and here) that try to categorize the smart phone competition between Apple, Blackberry, Google, Palm, Microsoft and others as a winner-take-all horse race, and then often proclaim which one is likely to win. Reality doesn't work that way.

It is entirely possible for some or even all to succeed in the market, presuming that we understand that "success" has an appropriate definition. If the product or product line is either profitable or its losses are more than compensated by pull-through sales and profits of associated business lines, it is successful. Some of these smart phone product lines will be more successful than others, while some may hit a wall and get MD'd (manufacturer discontinued). It is interesting to speculate whether iPhone or Android will eclipse the other, but that does not determine success. I think it should be clear by now that both are likely to be long-term successes.

The economist John Maynard Keynes once said about placing too much confidence in long-term investments: "in the long run, we're all dead." The same is true of products and companies. If history is any guide, I can confidently predict that in the year 2100 there will be no iPhone, and probably no Apple Corporation. I can go further and predict that there will be no Android or Google, no Windows or Microsoft, and probably no IBM, Chevron or a host of other of today's large, established enterprises.

So, yes, the iPhone is doomed. However until that happens, iPhone will continue its string of market successes, and that makes it all worthwhile for Apple and its shareholders and customers. Similarly, in the end you and l are dead, but until then life is worth living. Immortality for successful products, companies and people isn't a necessary attribute.