“The implications are clearly very negative for the carriers,” said Dvai Ghose, telecom analyst at Genuity Capital Markets. “Some of the biggest parts of your bill come from long-distance and roaming charges.”To be fair, the article does leaven this sort of doom talk by indicating that the transition will be slow. But the reason given, the need for higher-speed mobile data, is wrong, although high data charge by Canadian carriers could discourage VoIP usage, the technical reasons for VoIP's difficulties are quite different. I covered this topic quite some time ago. Let's briefly review the points from the SMS article it referenced:
The app holds the potential to allow Skype users to avoid voice plans altogether.
- VoIP operates on the smart phone application processor, not the dedicated radio chip-sets, and is therefore is a massive drain on the battery. This can only be optimized with new hardware, not in the software.
- VoIP requires keeping a data connection open to an external server, which requires that the application processor remains awake. This, too, is a dreadful drain on the battery. SMS and GSM/CDMA voice do not have this constraint since they have been optimized with hardware and network protocols to maximize standby battery life while still being instantly responsive to incoming IM and telephone calls.
At least this is the case with app stores that put applications through a vetting process, such as for Apple's iPhone, but not for Android apps. Many SIP and VoIP applications are showing up on Android, but even they cannot escape they present technical constraints of the networks and handsets, and are therefore also value only where WiFi is available. Since WiFi is pretty ubiquitous in the home and office, that could create some pressure on the carriers as Android continues its market advance and VoIP applications become popular. Services like Google Voice (formerly Grandcentral) will help by unifying these disparate voice services onto a single number, thus making VoIP more transparent and therefore acceptable to a majority of users.
Change can be expected to continue incrementally, and not by an overnight revolution.
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